As of 2:00 a.m. PDT on Wednesday, August 17, 2011 (Advisory #3): Tropical Storm Greg has become the seventh Eastern Pacific system to earn a name in 2011, and is currently located about 135 miles SSW of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Greg is moving West-Northwest (300°) at 16 mph and is forecast to strengthen to hurricane status on Thursday.
The latest forecast track shows Greg crossing into the Southern California swell window by Thursday night, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. The guidance models currently forecast Greg to peak in intensity during the next 48-72 hours, after which colder waters are expected to induce a steady weakening trend.
The forecast isn’t really exciting for Southern California surfers at the moment, given Greg’s expected West-Northwest track and sub-major hurricane strength, but it’s worth keeping an eye on, particularly once it enters the swell window late Thursday. Nature does have a way of defying the computer models.