Hurricane Earl is now a category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 110 knots. The storm is forecast to continue North, but expected to remain just offshore of the Eastern seaboard. Immediate effects of the storm are being observed on the Southwestern Atlantic buoy (@buoy41043), with primary swell wave heights of 24.6 feet being reported as of 3 p.m. Eastern time.
The Cape Canaveral model (@buoy41010) shows a sharp increase in surf on Wednesday, with wave heights predicted to peak mid-day on Thursday (18.4 feet at 14.1 seconds 86°).
Looking further up the coast, surf on the Masonboro Inlet buoy (@buoy41110) is forecast to rise sharply from the Southeast on Thursday afternoon, peaking overnight (9.5 feet at 15.4 seconds 117°) then rapidly declining on Friday.
And a bit further North in New Jersey, wave heights on Buoy 44009 (26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ) are modeled to steadily increase Wednesday through Friday, providing some very contestable surf for the USBA Jenks Pro, which runs September 1st - 7th.
The buoy model forecast for the upcoming week shows a healthy long-period South swell arriving Tuesday, and a large, short-period Northwest swell Friday into Saturday.
The Point Loma South buoy model shows a fresh South swell filling in on Tuesday, and peaking Wednesday morning (5.2 feet at 16.5 seconds 190°). Forerunners in the 20-second period range are forecast to arrive today, with the waves slowly declining through Friday.
A slight Southerly reinforcement is arrives late Saturday into Sunday, mixed with a short-period WNW component (4.9 feet at 8.3 seconds 283°).
Looking North, the South swell is forecast to fill on the Half Moon Bay buoy through Tuesday, and peak Wednesday afternoon (5.2 feet at 16.5 seconds 188°). The swell slowly declines through Friday, however a large, short-period Northwest swell builds quickly on Thursday.
This Northwest swell bumps up again Friday night (12.1 feet at 8.7 seconds 311°), then declines through the weekend. Given the size and short-period nature of this swell, look for sloppy, disorganized conditions to prevail once it arrives.
The Point Loma South buoy model forecast shows back-to-back South-Southwest pulses this upcoming weekend. The first swell is forecast to produce 22-second forerunners as early as Thursday morning, then build through Friday before peaking Saturday morning (3 feet at 16.5 seconds 198°).
The second swell is a bit bigger and peaks early Sunday morning (3.6 feet at 17.9 seconds 197°). View the forecast model on the Point Loma South buoy page and keep tabs on real-time observations by following @buoy46232 on Twitter.
The Dana Point model is looking good too, with consistent wave energy hovering around 3 feet at 16 seconds from mid-day Friday through Monday. Both models hint at 20-second South forerunners next Monday (August 23), but we’ll have to wait and see how that develops.
SSW Hilo - Saturday 8/14
SSW Hilo - Wednesday 8/18
Waimea Bay - Thursday 8/19
The SSW Hilo buoy model (@buoy51002) shows a combination of South-Southwest swells that should provide a small bump in surf over the weekend. Small wave heights hovering around 1.3 feet, but a strong 16 second period. The model also shows a slight increase on the buoy late Saturday (1.6 feet at 16.2 seconds 204°), which should fill through Sunday morning.
A larger, more Southerly swell is forecast to peak late Wednesday night (3.6 feet at 15.8 seconds 189°) and fill through Thursday the 18th.
At the moment, a small, moderate-period NW swell is showing on the Waimea buoy (@buoy51201). A larger Northwest swell is forecast to arrive on Thursday the 19th (3 feet at 11.4 seconds 316°), providing some fun surf for the Country.
The North Pacific wave models are looking pretty juicy next week, with some overhead (maybe double) stuff projected for Hawaii, and another storm brewing behind it. Direction looks good, West to Northwest, hopefully it will start pushing some sand around in the Country.
