Buoy Alarm

East Pacific - XXL Swell in the Long-Range Forecast

A significant swell is showing in the long-range East Pacific model, with Buoy 46006 (SE PAPA, 600 NM West of Eureka, CA) forecast to reach 33 feet at 13 seconds (W 276°) on Friday, January 20th.

The long-range model is subject to revision, but the forecast for Half Moon Bay is currently showing swell conditions approaching 23 feet at 15 seconds (WNW 292°) by Saturday afternoon (1/21).

We’ll be keeping an eye on the models to see how this swell develops over the next few days.

January 19th Update: Swell Sightly Downgraded

The swell is a bit smaller than initially forecast, with swell conditions at @buoy46006 now expected to peak Friday afternoon at 29 feet at 13 seconds (W 266°). The Half Moon Bay buoy is expected to build rapidly on Saturday and peak in the evening at 21 feet at 14 seconds (WNW 290°).

Hilary Intensifies, Now a Hurricane

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT on Thursday, September 22, 2011 (NHC Advisory #6): Hurricane Hilary is currently moving WNW (295°) at 10 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. Hilary’s track is forecast to continue along the southwest coast of Mexico, with additional strengthening expected over the next 48 hours.

After the next three days, the models diverge significantly with regional models showing recurvature, while some of the global models expect Hilary to continue moving WNW. The official forecast lies between these scenarios, which now places Hilary within the Southern California swell window early Tuesday morning.

In terms of surf, it’s difficult to say what the impact of Hurricane Hilary will be until she enters the swell window. Although Hilary is forecast to be on a weakening trend by then, if she maintains a slow pace and/or turns north, it could be enough to pump some moderate-period energy towards Southern California, with swell arriving by Thursday or Friday. The outlook will become a bit clearer by Sunday.

Hilary Expected to Become Hurricane on Thursday

As of 8:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, September 21, 2011 (NHC Advisory #4): Tropical storm Hilary continues to strengthen, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects Hilary to intensify to hurricane strength tomorrow, and tropical storm warnings have been issued along the coast of Mexico due to the nearshore forecast track.

The storm is forecast to reach peak intensity over the upcoming weekend, with maximum sustained winds approaching 105 mph. If correct, this would mean Hilary would be on a weakening trend on Monday as she enters the Southern California swell window. Not the greatest news in terms of surf, but storms have been known to defy the models. We will continue to keep an eye on her.

Tropical Storm Hilary

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT on Wednesday, September 21, 2011 (NHC Advisory #2): Tropical Storm Hilary has formed south of Mexico, currently packing maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. Hilary is moving west-northwest (290°) at 5 mph, and is expected to increase in both speed and intensity over the next few days.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast expects Hilary to reach hurricane strength by Friday, and intensify to a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday. If the current forecast track holds up, Hilary will enter the Southern California swell window sometime on Monday.

We’ll have to see what Hilary does over the next few days, but there is potential for a hurricane swell during the tail end of next week. That all depends on how Hilary develops over the next few days, especially once she crosses into the swell window. Keep an eye on this one.