Tagged: new york

Hurricane Sandy’s Unprecedented Storm Surge

Rockaway Beach, New York - October 29, 2012

Hurricane Sandy was the largest Atlantic hurricane in diameter on record. The official report from NOAA puts landfall at approximately 8 p.m. EDT 5 miles southwest of Atlantic City, New Jersey. Storm surge from the hurricane was devastating, reaching an unprecedented 13 feet, swamping subway tunnels and leaving over 7 million homes and businesses without power up and down the coast.

Primary swell power at Station 44025 (33 NM South of Islip, NY) reached 322 kW/m on October 29th, 2012, which represents a tremendous amount of energy in the water. To put that into perspective, the Pauwela, Maui buoy reported a maximum primary swell power of 169 kW/m on October 9th, 2012, opening day at Peahi. That’s roughly half the power recorded off of Long Island yesterday.

Buoy 44025 - Wind and Primary Swell conditions on October 29, 2012

Our thoughts go out to all those affected by the storm. We wish you a speedy recovery!

Rockaway Beach photo via Tubes & Boobs

Atlantic Northeast/

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Katia Continues Northwest, Swell Continues to Build

As of 11:00 a.m. AST on Tuesday, September 6, 2011 (NHC Advisory #34): Hurricane Katia is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and is currently moving northwest (310°) at 9 mph. Katia is not expected to make landfall, with a forecast track turning progressively more northerly through Thursday.

The next few days will see increasing moderate-period southeast swell from Katia across the East Coast, with conditions peaking later in the week before fading into the weekend.

Starting in Florida, the Cape Canaveral buoy is currently reporting swell conditions of 4 feet at 12 seconds and is forecast to build throughout the day, with the swell heights increasing to 7-9 feet on Wednesday. The swell direction becomes more easterly as Katia passes to the North, with swell heights quickly fading late Thursday into Friday.

The long-range forecast shows another east-southeast pulse for Sunday-Monday, the result of another tropical system currently forming in the East Atlantic. Keep an eye on the latest forecast to see how that swell develops.

Up the coast, the Cape Hatteras forecast is showing a large southeast swell building into Thursday with conditions expected to reach 21 feet at 14 seconds (114°) as Katia passes. This station is located 150 nautical miles offshore and much closer to Katia’s expected path, which explains the rapid intensification of both waves and winds on Thursday. Most notable is the change in wind direction, with rotates a complete 180° from east to west in a 48-hour span as Katia passes the buoy.

By contrast, the nearshore Diamond Shoals station forecast shows much more favorable conditions on Thursday, with an extra-large, moderate-period ESE swell of 15 feet at 14 seconds paired with north winds. While Wednesday looks onshore and blown, if the winds turn and fade a bit overnight, it could be huge and offshore by Thursday afternoon.

New York sees increasing southeast swell through Friday, which will provide contestable surf for the 2011 Quiksilver Pro New York. The main event is already underway, with round 1 currently in the water in Long Beach.

If the east winds remain light, it’s possible the event could finish by the weekend. Friday looks particularly good in the morning, with a peaking southeast swell of 11 feet at 14 seconds and favorable north winds. The swell fades really quickly though, dropping to 3 feet at 8 seconds by Saturday morning, and although there’s another southeast pulse in the long-range forecast, organizers probably won’t roll the dice on that swell unless the winds force them to.

Our call is the Quiksilver Pro New York runs through the week on the rising Katia swell and finishes with a bang on Friday.


Katia Likely to Become a Hurricane Today

As of 11:00 a.m. AST on Wednesday, August 31, 2011 (NHC Advisory #10): Tropical Storm Katia is expected to reach hurricane strength sometime today. Currently, Katia has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and is moving WNW (285°) at 21 mph. The long-range forecast calls for continued strengthening, with Katia reaching major hurricane strength by Sunday morning.

The Cape Canaveral forecast is showing signs of ground swell from Katia beginning Sunday, with 17-second ESE (108°) forerunners. The surf is forecast to continue building through next Wednesday, with swell conditions reaching the 8 feet at 14 seconds range by mid-day.

The forecast looks similar in New York, with Southeast swell also expected to arrive late Sunday (2 feet at 16 seconds, 132°) and increase into Wednesday (7 feet at 14 seconds, 134°). Good news for the 2011 Quiksilver Pro New York, which begins on Sunday with the trials.

Hopefully Katia maintains an offshore track and avoids landfall on the East Coast. Things are looking favorable at the moment, but keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center advisories for the latest updates. Also keep an eye on the Wavewatch forecasts as they continue to develop.


Ke11y Slater Wins 2011 Billabong Pro Tahiti

Kelly Slater managed to weave his way to the front of the ASP World Tour rankings yesterday after winning the 2011 Billabong Pro Tahiti. Teahupo’o served up an unbelievable string of surf, including a massive “code red” day that will undoubtably surface again in the 2012 Billabong XXL award finals.

After scoring epic conditions in Tahiti, the ASP now heads to the Atlantic for the Quiksilver Pro New York, the first-ever WCT stop on the East Coast of the United States. The competition is packaged with a slew of distractions, including BMX, motocross, and skateboarding events, designed to supplement a potential lack of action in the water, a distinct possibility (although Katia is brewing). At the moment, there are unconfirmed rumors the entire event has been cancelled, but with no official statement from Quiksilver, the show presumably goes on.

Here’s a look at the forecast as of Monday evening: The first three days of the 15-day holding period, which is scheduled for September 1 – 15, have been set aside for a local trials event. Starting on Thursday, there’s a mixture of small, short-period ESE and East wind swell (2-3 feet at 5-8 seconds), with a touch of long-period Southeast swell in the background (1 foot at 15-16 seconds 131°).

On Saturday, the short-period East (94°) swell picks up a notch to the 4 feet at 9 seconds range, and long-period forerunners from the Southeast start to arrive on Sunday (1 foot at 18 seconds 132°). However, Southwest winds begin to increase over the weekend as well.

Conditions should improve by Monday, September 5th, as the Southeast ground swell continues to fill-in (3 feet at 14 seconds 132°) and the SSW wind swell backs off as winds ease and clock to the WNW. In fact, the mixture of SSW and SE swell with improving local winds could potentially deliver enough combo-swell action to run the first day of competition.

The nearest station reporting real-time observations is Buoy 44065 (New York Harbor Entrance), which is located about 14 miles South from the event site in Long Beach. Real-time wind and wave data from the buoy is available on Twitter by following @buoy44065.


The Quiksilver Pro New York – September 4-15, 2011

The ASP is headed to Long Beach in September. Long Beach, New York.

Quicksilver recently announced The Quiksilver Pro New York, the first-ever ASP world tour stop on the East Coast, and the first professional surfing event to offer a seven-digit prize purse. That’s cash, with two commas.

There are a few buoys located in the area, including buoy 44025, which is stationed 33 NM South of Islip, NY. For real-time updates from this location, follow @buoy44025 on Twitter.

As the event gets closer, we’ll be following the free, 7-day forecast to keep tabs on swell developments. But for now, we’d rather stay by the fire and avoid the 42° F water temps.


Hurricane Danielle & Tropical Depression 7

The outlook for the East Coast this weekend includes long-period energy courtesy of Hurricane Danielle, which currently has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. The hurricane is projected to swing North over the weekend and not expected to make landfall.

Effects of Hurricane Danielle are visible in the East Coast buoy models, with 13-14 second swells modeled to hit up and down the coast over the weekend. The offshore Cape Canaveral buoy (@buoy41010) shows an East swell building Saturday through Sunday (6.2 feet at 14.1 seconds 98°), with the swell period peaking late Sunday.

The effects of Danielle’s shift in direction and projected Northerly track are evident in the model which shows an increase in swell height (10.2 feet), but a subsequent loss of swell organization (11.1 seconds), with the swell direction shifting a total of 38° over three days, from Saturday (ESE, 101°) through Monday (ENE, 68°).

Looking a bit further into the Cape Canaveral model, there are already signs of another long-period ESE swell building next week Tuesday-Wednesday as a result of Tropical Depression 7.

Up the coast, similar conditions exist on both the Masonboro Inlet model:

As well as Montauk Point, whose location and distance from Danielle allows for a longer fetch than Florida, resulting in longer swell periods, much less directional shift (only 4°, from 135° to 131°), and a more organized swell overall:

Keep an eye on these models as the week progresses and Tropical Depression 7 potentially becomes Hurricane Earl, producing another Atlantic swell next week.