Tagged: hurricane eugene

Hurricane Greg Unlikely to Produce Significant Swell for Southern California

Hurricane Greg Public Advisory #8

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT on Thursday, August 18, 2011 (NHC Advisory #8): Hurricane Greg is currently located about 320 miles SSW of the southern tip of Baja, California, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Greg is moving West-Northwest (285°) at 18 mph and is forecast to continue strengthening today before hitting cooler waters.

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicts an increase of maximum sustained winds to 90 mph within the next 24 hours. The track is expected to turn more westward during that time, with Greg’s forward speed slowing over the next few days.

Hurricane Greg vs. Hurricane Eugene

For those curious how Greg stacks up against Hurricane Eugene, the image above shows the available track data for both storms. Eugene actually strengthened to become a major hurricane (Saffir-Simpson rating of 3 or greater) once it entered the swell window, however Greg is unlikely to reach Category 2 strength.

Given the lack of strength, as well as the track direction and forward speed, it’s not looking like Greg will generate any significant South swell for the Southern California region.


Eugene Downgraded to Tropical Storm

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT on Friday, August 5, 2011 (Advisory #22): Hurricane Tropical Storm Eugene is located approximately 935 miles WSW of the Southern tip of Baja, California. The storm is continuing its WNW track (13 mph), with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The thrill is gone.

Initial signs of swell activity generated by Eugene began to appear on the Point Loma buoy last night around 9 p.m., and this morning at 6:39 a.m. the station reported swell conditions of 4.6 feet at 14.3 seconds (179°). These observations are in line with the latest Wavewatch forecast model, which shows a slight increase in wave height (around 5 feet) as the swell continues to build through the morning.

Keep an eye on the real-time observations from the Point Loma station (@buoy46232) throughout the day to see how the swell fills in.


Hurricane Eugene Weakening Over Colder Waters

Hurricane Eugene Public Advisory #18

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT on Thursday, August 4, 2011 (Advisory #18): After a brief stint yesterday as a Category 4, Hurricane Eugene has eased back down to a Category 3, and continues to weaken as it moves over colder waters. Eugene currently has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph with stronger gusts and is moving WNW at 14 mph.

Wavewatch Swell Period Forecast (Saturday, August 6, 2011 00 UTC)

As a result of Eugene’s West-Northwest track, the majority of the swell energy being generated by the Hurricane is focused along that bearing. The Wavewatch swell period chart above (Friday, 5 p.m. PDT) illustrates this, with the longer-period energy traveling in the WNW direction, away from California. While Eugene is set to deliver surf to Southern California beginning Friday, it is primarily sideband energy that we are expecting.

Buoy 46232 - Point Loma South, CA (Detailed Surf Forecast)

At its latest position (16.8 N, 118.9 W), Hurricane Eugene is located approximately 940 nautical miles South (185°) of the Point Loma buoy. Looking at the detailed wave chart above, Eugene is forecast to produce swell conditions of 5 feet at 13 seconds (170°) by Friday afternoon.

The moderate 13-second swell period is a result of the speed, proximity, and direction of the storm, which maintained a WNW track of roughly 14 mph while in the Southern California swell window. Ultimately this was too fast and too West to earn Eugene a place in hurricane swell lore, but he’s no dud either.

Keep an eye on the real-time swell reports from the Point Loma buoy later tonight, as Eugene should begin to appear sometime around 10 p.m. You’ll know he’s knocking when the swell direction shifts from Southwest to South-Southeast.


Hurricane Eugene Strengthens, But Likely Peaking

Hurricane Eugene Advisory #14

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT on Wednesday, August 3, 2011 (Advisory #14): Hurricane Eugene strengthened slightly overnight, and is currently producing maximum sustained winds of 125 mph with higher gusts. The Hurricane encountered a patch of higher ocean heat content that may have aided this intensification, but exits this region by this afternoon and may currently be at its peak strength, with increasingly colder waters expected as it tracks WNW at 14 mph.

Point Loma South, CA - Detailed Surf Forecast

The detailed swell forecast for the Point Loma South buoy (as of 11:00 p.m. PDT Tuesday) shows the swell component generated by Hurricane Eugene (green line above) peaking at that location around Friday at noon (4.8 feet at 13.4 seconds 169°). The swell direction rotates South as it fades through the weekend, settling in around 180° by Sunday.

Given Eugene’s overnight strengthening, it’s likely that the next Wavewatch model run will see a further increase in forecast swell height, as well as an increase in swell period, pushing the arrival time forward a bit further. We’ll provide an update once those models become available.


Eugene Enters Swell Window With Cat 3 Strength

Hurricane Eugene - Public Advisory #12

The latest National Hurricane Center advisory (#12) has been issued, and Hurricane Eugene has passed into the Southern California swell window and become a major hurricane (Category 3) with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph with higher gusts.

Eugene is forecast to strengthen over the next 24 hours, with maximum wind speeds expected to increase to 125 mph, then weaken Wednesday night into Thursday as the hurricane hits cooler waters.


Eugene Update: Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger

Hurricane Eugene Advisory #10 (August 2, 2011)

The latest National Hurricane Center public advisory on Hurricane Eugene was issued this morning at 8:00 a.m. PDT. At that time, Eugene was located about 615 miles South of the Southern tip of Baja, California, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane.

Eugene is expected to continue strengthening during the next 24 hours, possibly becoming a major hurricane during that time. The storm has been defying the forecast models and is not slowing down, presently moving to the WNW at 15 mph. Because of this faster pace, Eugene is now expected to cross into the 160° swell window sometime this afternoon, ahead of the previous forecast.

In addition, Hurricane Eugene has also been upgraded slightly in strength. The 24-hour forecast (5:00 a.m. PDT on Aug 3, 2011) calls for maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, which would put Eugene on the border of a Category 3 storm (sustained winds of 111-130 mph) after it crosses into the Southern California swell window.

Buoy 46223 - Dana Point, CA (Wind & Swell Forecast)

As a result of the upgraded wind forecasts, the latest Dana Point Wavewatch III model runs are showing an increase in both swell height and swell period for this weekend. Eugene is now expected to produce 14-second swell periods, which means the swell is traveling faster, and will now arrive a bit earlier than previously forecast. (1) Initial signs of Eugene are now expected to appear on Friday, with swell heights increasing throughout the day. (3) The South swell generated by Hurricane Eugene is now forecast to peak on Saturday, with swell conditions of 4 feet at 12 seconds (171°-177°).

The South from Hurricane Eugene isn’t the only swell in the water however, (2) 20-second SSW forerunners from a South Pacific pulse are forecast to arrive on Saturday, with swell heights building through the weekend into early next week. (4) This mixture of swell energy will produce combo-swell conditions for Sunday, as Eugene’s South influence fades and the SSW component continues to fill-in.

It will be interesting to see what Eugene does over the next 48 hours, particularly once it passes into the Southern California swell window. The ideal situation would be Eugene strengthening and slowing once it crosses the 160° mark, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Keep an eye on the Point Loma and Dana Point forecasts, as they’ll likely be continuously changing as things develop.


Will Hurricane Eugene Make an Appearance at the US Open of Surfing?

Hurricane Eugene - Advisory #7

Hurricane Eugene has become the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Eastern Pacific season, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (NHC Advisory #7). The hurricane was located about 410 miles SW of Zihuatanejo, Mexico as of 2:00 p.m. (PDT) and moving WNW at 13 mph.

The current 5-day forecast puts Eugene just East of the Southern California swell window (160° bearing) at 11:00 p.m. (PDT) on Tuesday, August 2nd. The hurricane is expected to cross into the swell window early Wednesday morning with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (120 mph gusts).

Hurricane Eugene Forecast (Advisory #7) & Adrian Best Track

If the current forecast holds up, Eugene will pack hurricane strength winds through Thursday, August 4th, making it the first hurricane this season to actually cross into the swell window. Adrian came close back in June, but ran out of gas right at 160°. (Above: Adrian’s best-track path plotted over Eugene’s forecast track & cone).

Buoy 46223 - Dana Point, CA (6-Day Surf Forecast)

The latest Dana Point forecast is showing (1) a small, moderate-period South-Southeast swell arriving on Saturday (2 feet at 11 seconds, 167°). That swell is forecast to build, (2) turning more South as the swell peaks at 3 feet at 10 seconds (177°) Sunday afternoon. Notice that there is some long-period SSW (200°) swell also in the forecast, which should provide increasing combo-swell conditions on Sunday as that component peaks as well.

Definitely some good news for the 2011 US Open of Surfing, which is scheduled to hold their final rounds of competition on Sunday, especially for those surfers who make it into the 2 p.m. final and will likely see the largest surf of the event.

We’ll be back with a mid-week update on Eugene. Those of you who want to keep a closer eye on the storm, we suggest tuning in to the National Hurricane Center updates or following @NHC_Pacific.