Tagged: florida

Katia Continues Northwest, Swell Continues to Build

As of 11:00 a.m. AST on Tuesday, September 6, 2011 (NHC Advisory #34): Hurricane Katia is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and is currently moving northwest (310°) at 9 mph. Katia is not expected to make landfall, with a forecast track turning progressively more northerly through Thursday.

The next few days will see increasing moderate-period southeast swell from Katia across the East Coast, with conditions peaking later in the week before fading into the weekend.

Starting in Florida, the Cape Canaveral buoy is currently reporting swell conditions of 4 feet at 12 seconds and is forecast to build throughout the day, with the swell heights increasing to 7-9 feet on Wednesday. The swell direction becomes more easterly as Katia passes to the North, with swell heights quickly fading late Thursday into Friday.

The long-range forecast shows another east-southeast pulse for Sunday-Monday, the result of another tropical system currently forming in the East Atlantic. Keep an eye on the latest forecast to see how that swell develops.

Up the coast, the Cape Hatteras forecast is showing a large southeast swell building into Thursday with conditions expected to reach 21 feet at 14 seconds (114°) as Katia passes. This station is located 150 nautical miles offshore and much closer to Katia’s expected path, which explains the rapid intensification of both waves and winds on Thursday. Most notable is the change in wind direction, with rotates a complete 180° from east to west in a 48-hour span as Katia passes the buoy.

By contrast, the nearshore Diamond Shoals station forecast shows much more favorable conditions on Thursday, with an extra-large, moderate-period ESE swell of 15 feet at 14 seconds paired with north winds. While Wednesday looks onshore and blown, if the winds turn and fade a bit overnight, it could be huge and offshore by Thursday afternoon.

New York sees increasing southeast swell through Friday, which will provide contestable surf for the 2011 Quiksilver Pro New York. The main event is already underway, with round 1 currently in the water in Long Beach.

If the east winds remain light, it’s possible the event could finish by the weekend. Friday looks particularly good in the morning, with a peaking southeast swell of 11 feet at 14 seconds and favorable north winds. The swell fades really quickly though, dropping to 3 feet at 8 seconds by Saturday morning, and although there’s another southeast pulse in the long-range forecast, organizers probably won’t roll the dice on that swell unless the winds force them to.

Our call is the Quiksilver Pro New York runs through the week on the rising Katia swell and finishes with a bang on Friday.


Hurricane Katia Swell Arrives on the East Coast

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday, September 5, 2011 (NHC Advisory #30): Hurricane Katia has strengthened and is now packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Katia is currently moving northwest (310°) at 13 mph, and is forecast to strengthen further, possibly becoming a Category 3 hurricane later today.

Southeast swell from Katia is already hitting the East Coast, with moderate to long period energy being reported from Florida all the way to Massachusetts. Swell conditions are forecast to intensify over the next few days as Katia strengthens and continues to track to the northwest.

Check out our buoy map for real-time swell and forecast information from a station near you.


Katia Likely to Become a Hurricane Today

As of 11:00 a.m. AST on Wednesday, August 31, 2011 (NHC Advisory #10): Tropical Storm Katia is expected to reach hurricane strength sometime today. Currently, Katia has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and is moving WNW (285°) at 21 mph. The long-range forecast calls for continued strengthening, with Katia reaching major hurricane strength by Sunday morning.

The Cape Canaveral forecast is showing signs of ground swell from Katia beginning Sunday, with 17-second ESE (108°) forerunners. The surf is forecast to continue building through next Wednesday, with swell conditions reaching the 8 feet at 14 seconds range by mid-day.

The forecast looks similar in New York, with Southeast swell also expected to arrive late Sunday (2 feet at 16 seconds, 132°) and increase into Wednesday (7 feet at 14 seconds, 134°). Good news for the 2011 Quiksilver Pro New York, which begins on Sunday with the trials.

Hopefully Katia maintains an offshore track and avoids landfall on the East Coast. Things are looking favorable at the moment, but keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center advisories for the latest updates. Also keep an eye on the Wavewatch forecasts as they continue to develop.


Tropical Storm Katia Forms in the Atlantic

As of 5:00 a.m. AST on Tuesday, August 30, 2011 (NHC Advisory #5): Tropical Storm Katia has formed in the tropical Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a West-Northwesterly (290°) movement of 17 mph. Katia is forecast to continue strengthening during the next 48 hours, reaching near hurricane intensity by late Wednesday or early Thursday, and possibly major hurricane strength (Category 3 / 115 mph winds) by Sunday.

Above: Swell wave height and direction for Tuesday, September 6, 2011

The forecast for Buoy 41010 (120 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL) is already predicting solid surf from Katia, with a long-period ESE swell building Sunday into Tuesday (6 feet at 14 seconds, 107°). This is also good news for the 2011 Quiksilver Pro New York, which kicks off its holding period on Thursday, and runs through September 15th.


Hurricane Irene Turns North-Northwest

Hurricane Irene Advisory #21

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday, August 25, 2011 (NHC Advisory #21): Hurricane Irene has turned North-Northwestward and is currently moving at a heading of 330° at 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. This NNW track is expected to continue tonight, with Irene turning North by early Friday. Irene remains a major hurricane with Category 3 strength. Additional strengthening is possible today and tonight.

Buoy 41010 - Cape Canaveral, FL (Meteorological Observations)

As Hurricane Irene approaches, the Cape Canaveral offshore buoy (@buoy41010) has continued to report increasing wave and wind observations, with significant wave heights of 13.5 feet, and wind speeds of 25 knots (33 knot gusts) reported at 11:20 a.m. EDT. These conditions are forecast to intensify throughout Thursday and Friday, before subsiding into the weekend as the Hurricane continues North.

Looking further up the coast, the forecast for Masonboro Inlet, NC (@buoy41110) shows a building Southeast swell in the 8-10 feet at 15 seconds range for Friday, but with strengthening East winds. Things get really intense on Saturday, with 14-foot wave heights and 40+ knot winds rotating NE to NW throughout the day.

Further North, the Virgina Beach offshore (@buoy44014) forecast shows a solid South-Southeast pulse on Friday (5-9 feet at 12-seconds 150°), but increasing SSE winds are poised to blow it out. Both the surf and wind continue to intensify on Saturday into Sunday, with strong winds rotating direction from East-Southeast to West as Irene passes.

Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Hurricane Irene, and stay safe out there!


Hurricane Irene Strengthens to Category 3

Hurricane Irene Advisory #17

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, August 24, 2011 (NHC Advisory #17): Hurricane Irene is currently a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, and is moving NW (305°) at 12 mph. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next 24-36 hours, with favorable sea surface temperatures (29° C) that may push Irene into Category 4 territory.

Hurricane Irene is expected to turn to the North-Northwest and then North on Thursday, with the core of the hurricane moving across the Southeastern and Central Bahamas today. The model guidance is in excellent agreement for the next 48-72 hours, but beyond that period there is some question whether or not Irene will continue NNE or turn back toward the North. The National Hurricane Center again warns that the 3-5 day forecast track is subject to error, and the official forecast track has been nudged slightly eastward.

Buoy 41010 - Wave Conditions on Wed, Aug 24, 2011 (10:30 EDT)

The latest wave condition reports from the Cape Canaveral offshore buoy show the initial impact of Irene starting to fill in, with significant wave heights double what they were at midnight, and expected to continue building through Thursday into Friday.

Follow @buoy41010 on Twitter for real-time wave and meteorological reports from the station. A map of the Florida regional buoys is also available.


Hurricane Warnings Issued for Bahamas as Irene Closes In

Hurricane Irene NHC Public Advisory #13

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, August 23, 2011 (NHC Advisory #13): Hurricane Irene continues to move WNW (295°) at 12 mph, and is located about 70 miles South of Grand Turk Island. A hurricane warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as the Southeastern, Central, and Northwestern Bahamas. Irene is currently Category 2 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.

Irene is expected to strengthen during the next few days and eventually reach Category 3 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. The forecast track now places Hurricane Irene East of Florida on Thursday, within 60 miles of the Cape Canaveral offshore buoy.

Buoy 41010 - 120 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL

The latest Wavewatch model for the Cape Canaveral offshore station shows the intense conditions expected on Thursday and Friday, with 20-foot+ significant wave heights forecast. Keep an eye on the real-time reports starting tomorrow, as initial swell pulses begin to reach the area. Below is a list of stations in the region that report real-time observations via Twitter:


Hurricane Irene Marching Towards Florida

As of 11:00 a.m. AST on Monday, August 22, 2011 (NHC Advisory #8): Hurricane watches and warnings are being issued as Irene moves WNW (300°) at 13 mph, packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane over the next few days, with the official forecast expecting Category 3 strength as it moves across the central Bahamas.

Based on the latest guidance, the National Hurricane Center has shifted the official forecast track slightly East, lessening the threat to South Florida, but they stress that the 4-5 day estimates have average errors of 200-250 miles (based on the most recent 5-year averages). This places Irene about 200 miles East of the Southern tip of Florida on Thursday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

Looking at the Wavewatch forecast for the Cape Canaveral offshore buoy, we can see storm-surf conditions peaking early Friday, with primary swell conditions in the 35 feet at 13 seconds range. Further up the coast, the Cape Hatteras and Texas Tower forecasts are also showing huge (20+ feet), moderate-period swell filling throughout the upcoming weekend.

Given the uncertainty of Irene’s track, things can change pretty quickly over the next few days. Also, the threat to the Southern states is very real, especially if Irene continues to strengthen and wanders further West. For the latest updates and information regarding the hurricane, stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center as well as your local meteorologist.


Florida – Northeast Swell Thursday

Two Northeast swells are forecast for Buoy 41009 (20 NM East of Cape Canaveral), the first building late Wednesday through Thursday, and peaking at 5.2 feet at 11.1 seconds (48°) Thursday afternoon. That swell then dips slightly on Friday, before another Northeast pulse reinforces it later that afternoon.

The reinforcement builds late Friday, bumping swell heights back above 5-feet overnight (5.6 feet at 10.2 seconds), then fades through the weekend. Swell direction is forecast to remain between 48°-54° throughout its duration.

Northeast winds are forecast to increase slightly on Thursday to 10-knots, but swing to the Southwest by Friday morning, providing offshore conditions for the lingering Northeast swell. Check the Florida regional map for additional buoy locations, and follow @buoy41009 on Twitter for real-time updates from the Cape Canaveral buoy.


Hurricane Earl Flirts With The East Coast

Hurricane Earl is now a category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 110 knots. The storm is forecast to continue North, but expected to remain just offshore of the Eastern seaboard. Immediate effects of the storm are being observed on the Southwestern Atlantic buoy (@buoy41043), with primary swell wave heights of 24.6 feet being reported as of 3 p.m. Eastern time.

The Cape Canaveral model (@buoy41010) shows a sharp increase in surf on Wednesday, with wave heights predicted to peak mid-day on Thursday (18.4 feet at 14.1 seconds 86°).

Looking further up the coast, surf on the Masonboro Inlet buoy (@buoy41110) is forecast to rise sharply from the Southeast on Thursday afternoon, peaking overnight (9.5 feet at 15.4 seconds 117°) then rapidly declining on Friday.

And a bit further North in New Jersey, wave heights on Buoy 44009 (26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ) are modeled to steadily increase Wednesday through Friday, providing some very contestable surf for the USBA Jenks Pro, which runs September 1st – 7th.