Cool little video from Matuse covering May 5th’s Handplane Hoedown in San Clemente. A few people have asked what the buoys were doing that day, so here’s a link to the wave conditions at Dana Point on May 5th, 2012.
A fun-sized South swell is showing in the latest Dana Point forecast model. Currently, wave heights are expected to build through Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. It’s looking like a quick little pulse though, nothing like the steady string of SSW swells that we’ve got running at the moment.
The Dana Point detailed wave forecast as of Monday night shows a steady pulse of long-period South-Southwest (198°) energy through the next 7 days (pink line above). Look for wave heights to slowly increase beginning Wednesday into Saturday, topping out just above 3 feet.
Looking into next week, the forecast currently shows long-period forerunners from the South (2 feet at 17 seconds, 176°) arriving next Tuesday. We should have a better idea of what that swell will do in a few days, but in the meantime, enjoy the head-high surf that will be on tap through the weekend.
The Dana Point forecast is showing a steady pulse of long-period SSW (198°) swell this week, with wave heights slowly building Wednesday through Thursday, before peaking Friday (3.3 feet at 14.5 seconds 198°) and then lingering into Saturday.
The latest National Hurricane Center public advisory on Hurricane Eugene was issued this morning at 8:00 a.m. PDT. At that time, Eugene was located about 615 miles South of the Southern tip of Baja, California, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane.
Eugene is expected to continue strengthening during the next 24 hours, possibly becoming a major hurricane during that time. The storm has been defying the forecast models and is not slowing down, presently moving to the WNW at 15 mph. Because of this faster pace, Eugene is now expected to cross into the 160° swell window sometime this afternoon, ahead of the previous forecast.
In addition, Hurricane Eugene has also been upgraded slightly in strength. The 24-hour forecast (5:00 a.m. PDT on Aug 3, 2011) calls for maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, which would put Eugene on the border of a Category 3 storm (sustained winds of 111-130 mph) after it crosses into the Southern California swell window.
As a result of the upgraded wind forecasts, the latest Dana Point Wavewatch III model runs are showing an increase in both swell height and swell period for this weekend. Eugene is now expected to produce 14-second swell periods, which means the swell is traveling faster, and will now arrive a bit earlier than previously forecast. (1) Initial signs of Eugene are now expected to appear on Friday, with swell heights increasing throughout the day. (3) The South swell generated by Hurricane Eugene is now forecast to peak on Saturday, with swell conditions of 4 feet at 12 seconds (171°-177°).
The South from Hurricane Eugene isn’t the only swell in the water however, (2) 20-second SSW forerunners from a South Pacific pulse are forecast to arrive on Saturday, with swell heights building through the weekend into early next week. (4) This mixture of swell energy will produce combo-swell conditions for Sunday, as Eugene’s South influence fades and the SSW component continues to fill-in.
It will be interesting to see what Eugene does over the next 48 hours, particularly once it passes into the Southern California swell window. The ideal situation would be Eugene strengthening and slowing once it crosses the 160° mark, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Keep an eye on the Point Loma and Dana Point forecasts, as they’ll likely be continuously changing as things develop.
Hurricane Eugene has become the fifth hurricane of the 2011 Eastern Pacific season, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (NHC Advisory #7). The hurricane was located about 410 miles SW of Zihuatanejo, Mexico as of 2:00 p.m. (PDT) and moving WNW at 13 mph.
The current 5-day forecast puts Eugene just East of the Southern California swell window (160° bearing) at 11:00 p.m. (PDT) on Tuesday, August 2nd. The hurricane is expected to cross into the swell window early Wednesday morning with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (120 mph gusts).
If the current forecast holds up, Eugene will pack hurricane strength winds through Thursday, August 4th, making it the first hurricane this season to actually cross into the swell window. Adrian came close back in June, but ran out of gas right at 160°. (Above: Adrian’s best-track path plotted over Eugene’s forecast track & cone).
The latest Dana Point forecast is showing (1) a small, moderate-period South-Southeast swell arriving on Saturday (2 feet at 11 seconds, 167°). That swell is forecast to build, (2) turning more South as the swell peaks at 3 feet at 10 seconds (177°) Sunday afternoon. Notice that there is some long-period SSW (200°) swell also in the forecast, which should provide increasing combo-swell conditions on Sunday as that component peaks as well.
Definitely some good news for the 2011 US Open of Surfing, which is scheduled to hold their final rounds of competition on Sunday, especially for those surfers who make it into the 2 p.m. final and will likely see the largest surf of the event.
We’ll be back with a mid-week update on Eugene. Those of you who want to keep a closer eye on the storm, we suggest tuning in to the National Hurricane Center updates or following @NHC_Pacific.
Southern California surf forecast as of Wednesday, July 27: A new SSW swell fills Thursday into Friday, with a smaller SSW reinforcement hitting Sunday into Monday.
(1) 20-second South forerunners are expected late Wednesday. Keep an eye on the real-time swell period reports from stations such as Mission Bay and Camp Pendleton Nearshore, which are a bit more sheltered from short-period influences.
(2) The South swell builds through Thursday, with wave heights peaking late Thursday into Friday. Swell heights are expected to reach 3.1 feet, and hold steady in the 3-feet at 15-seconds range through Friday, before tapering off into the weekend.
(3) More long-period South-Southwest forerunners begin to arrive on Saturday. As the existing SSW (193°) swell fades over the weekend, expect a new SSW (199°) component to build Saturday into Sunday. Because the long-period forerunners will be filling underneath a more dominant swell, don’t expect to see them reflected in the real-time primary swell reports.
(4) Expect a slight boost in wave height late Sunday into Monday, as the SSW reinforcement peaks. This swell will not be as powerful as the Thursday/Friday pulse, but will provide energy in the 2-feet at 15-second range at its peak.
Plenty of purple, red, and orange in the Dana Point forecast, with a steady stream of South-Southwest surf headed for Southern California next week. Things start to get underway Sunday when long-period SSW (202°) forerunners are expected to arrive, with a 20-second SSW (194°) reinforcement pushing the surf up a notch late Tuesday into Wednesday. Surf is forecast to hold through Thursday then slowly decline into the weekend.
Definitely one of the better stretches of surf Southern California has had so far this season. With water temps in the mid-to-high 60’s, and plenty of sunshine in the forecast, the weekday warriors are stoked.
The 6-day forecast summary for the Dana Point buoy shows (A) small SSE energy from Adrian, and (1) long-period South swell forerunners late Tuesday into Wednesday, (2) increasing throughout the day on Wednesday then (3) peaking early Thursday morning (4 feet at 16 seconds 187°) before (4) slowly fading into the weekend.
Assuming the forecast holds up, expect plenty of surf for spots that favor a 188° swell direction. Be on the lookout for long-period South forerunners on the Point Loma buoy early Wednesday morning. Those reports should be around 2 feet at 19 seconds, with swell heights increasing to 3 feet by mid-morning, and 4 feet by dusk. Remember, these are open ocean swell heights, so nearshore breaks with the best exposure should expect head-high to overhead+ sets by dark. With the swell continuing to fill-in Wednesday night, look for the biggest surf early Thursday morning, coupled with light winds and a rising tide.
There is another 20-second South pulse on the radar for Saturday/Sunday, but that swell is currently at the edge of the forecast model. We should have a better idea by Wednesday of what to expect, so keep an eye on the Dana Point wavewatch model to see how things develop.
Sorry weekend warriors, this next South swell is tailor made for the week-day warriors.
The Dana Point 6-day forecast summary shows this week’s solid 20-second Southern Hemi hitting Tuesday, building through Wednesday, then tapering off into next weekend. Local winds vary up and down the coast, but in the Dana Point region look for light West winds early, increasing in the afternoon, before pulling back overnight.
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