The long range forecast is finally showing some promise, with potential for the first real Pipe swell of the season on Thursday, December 1st. Models are showing back-to-back storms brewing to the Northwest, which are expected to produce long-period swells late next week.
First things first though, a big north swell is expected to build rapidly late Saturday into Sunday, with conditions peaking early Sunday morning (13 feet at 14 seconds 349°). Strong east-northeast trade winds are also expected on Sunday, which ushers in a short-period northeast wind swell (5 feet at 7 seconds 46°).
Sunday’s swell will be the largest of the season so far, with spots that favor a northerly direction seeing the biggest surf. Conditions slowly fade through Wednesday, but that’s when the next pulse kicks in.
The long-range forecast is currently showing a new northwest (324°) swell building throughout the day next Wednesday, with conditions expected to reach 9 feet at 14 seconds by dark.
The 324° swell direction, along with the long period and large swell heights, could result in the first real Pipe swell of the 2011-2012 season. However, coming off a larger straight north swell, sand (and backwash) is likely to be an issue. There is another pulse stacked up behind this one however, which could actually see better conditions if the first northwest swell starts grooming the sand at Ehukai.
All of this is good news for the second jewel of the Triple Crown of Surfing, the Vans World Cup of Surfing at Sunset Beach, which will no doubt see much more action than the Reef Hawaiian Pro (congrats Taj).
Keep an eye on the Waimea Bay forecast model to see how next week’s swells develop.