South Pacific – A Pair of Swells in the Long-Range Forecast

April 23, 2012 Update – The latest model run shows the surface wind faltering a bit around the 30th, which means the second pulse expected to arrive in Southern California on May 7th will not be as large as previously forecast.

Although the surface winds are now expected to back off on 30th (above), there is still a good 36-42 hour span of strong northerly winds in the 140° to 120° longitudes between April 27-29th.

The long-range South Pacific forecast shows two long-period swells lining up at the end of April. South America will be receiving the brunt of the energy, and may very well see XXL-size surf, but more northern exposures can expect to get in on the action as well. The two images above show swell period and swell height respectively on April 30th, 2012. Each of the swell trains are shaded and labeled.

The first swell (1) is currently forecast to reach Southern California on May 4th, while the second (2), larger pulse is expected to arrive around May 7th. Given that these charts reflect the very end of the 180-hour model run, things are obviously subject to change. However, May is looking very favorable at the moment, and we’ll be keeping a eye on the southern hemisphere to see how things develop over the next few days.

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