Hurricane Greg Unlikely to Produce Significant Swell for Southern California

Hurricane Greg Public Advisory #8

As of 8:00 a.m. PDT on Thursday, August 18, 2011 (NHC Advisory #8): Hurricane Greg is currently located about 320 miles SSW of the southern tip of Baja, California, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Greg is moving West-Northwest (285°) at 18 mph and is forecast to continue strengthening today before hitting cooler waters.

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicts an increase of maximum sustained winds to 90 mph within the next 24 hours. The track is expected to turn more westward during that time, with Greg’s forward speed slowing over the next few days.

Hurricane Greg vs. Hurricane Eugene

For those curious how Greg stacks up against Hurricane Eugene, the image above shows the available track data for both storms. Eugene actually strengthened to become a major hurricane (Saffir-Simpson rating of 3 or greater) once it entered the swell window, however Greg is unlikely to reach Category 2 strength.

Given the lack of strength, as well as the track direction and forward speed, it’s not looking like Greg will generate any significant South swell for the Southern California region.