We’re monitoring the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and will be posting charts as Adrian’s path is updated. The latest advisory (#10 – 2:00 PM PDT Thu June 09, 2011) projects Hurricane Adrian nearing the 160° Southern California swell window by mid-day Saturday, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.
At that time, Adrian will be approximately 1,200 miles from the Point Loma South buoy. Depending on the swell period that is generated by the storm, with longer-period swell traveling faster, estimated travel times may vary between 1.5 to 3 days. This would result in forerunners reaching the buoy as early as Monday, but more likely mid-day Tuesday.
The Point Loma Wavewatch model currently shows a mixture of two SSW components on Monday (2 feet at 14 seconds from 206° and 2 feet at 17 seconds from 198°), but a 20-second South (183°) begins to fill late Tuesday into Wednesday. It will be interesting to see how Adrian develops over the next 24-hours, as it will likely impact the forecast for the middle of next week.
Advisory #11 Update
As of 8:00 p.m. PDT hurricane Adrian had strengthened into a category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph, and was moving WNW (285°) at 9 mph. A general WNW path is forecast to continue over the next 48 hours, possibly strengthening slightly later tonight or early Friday morning.
The forecast storm track hasn’t really changed, but the eye is now forecast to be just slightly East of the 160° swell window by 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, June 6th. Maximum sustained winds at that point are forecast to be 100 mph, with gusts up to 120 mph.
If you’re interested in following the storm track in Google Earth, the National Hurricane Center publishes its GIS track forecast and uncertainty cone in KMZ format for each advisory update. Simply download the latest Hurricane Adrian advisory file (currently “011adv”) and open it in Google Earth. Clicking on any point on the forecast track will provide location and wind strength information for that particular forecast hour. If you’d like to follow the actual hurricane path, download the past track KMZ file.