As of 8:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, September 21, 2011 (NHC Advisory #4): Tropical storm Hilary continues to strengthen, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects Hilary to intensify to hurricane strength tomorrow, and tropical storm warnings have been issued along the coast of Mexico due to the nearshore forecast track.
The storm is forecast to reach peak intensity over the upcoming weekend, with maximum sustained winds approaching 105 mph. If correct, this would mean Hilary would be on a weakening trend on Monday as she enters the Southern California swell window. Not the greatest news in terms of surf, but storms have been known to defy the models. We will continue to keep an eye on her.