Hawaii – November 30th Forecast Update

Hawaii surf forecast update for November 30th, 2011: A new northwest swell arrives today, with the Northwest Hawaii station (@buoy51101) already reporting 7.2 feet at 14.8 seconds (337°) as of 6:00 a.m. HST. Surf heights are expected to increase throughout the day and into Thursday, reaching the 8-10+ foot range late Thursday to early Friday.

Winds could be a little sketchy late Thursday and Friday however, as they are expected to turn slightly more north-northeast during that time. The good news is that they aren’t expected to be very strong, hovering in the 10 knot range, and turn to the east by Saturday.

Another northwest swell is forecast to arrive on Tuesday, but with a shorter duration than the current pulse. The Waimea Bay forecast shows swell conditions peaking mid-day on Tuesday (8 feet at 12 seconds, 316°), before fading overnight. By dawn on Wednesday (12/7), conditions are expected to drop to 5.6 feet at 12.1 seconds, with a consistent swell direction of 318°.

The wind forecast is excellent at the moment, with light southeast to east-southeast winds expected all day on Tuesday, providing gentle offshore conditions for the incoming swell.

Overall this should be a fun-sized swell for much of the North Shore, with a great northwest swell direction. If this first, larger pulse manages to clear some sand over the next few days, it could pave the way for a fun Pipe Masters warm-up session next Tuesday.

Out the back, the long-range forecast is showing another pulse brewing in the north Pacific. This swell continues to develop, and long-range forecasts are subject to revision, but at the moment it looks like another round of sizable northwest surf will arrive on Friday, December 9th. Check back this weekend for an update.

For real-time swell conditions we recommend following the Waimea Bay station on Twitter (@buoy51201). Also, the Northwest Hawaii station (@buoy51101) is a good indicator of incoming swell. Located about 270 nautical miles northwest of the North Shore of O‘ahu, it will provide a 10-12 hour lookahead depending on swell period and direction.

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