There’s been a serious lack of Northwest energy in Hawaii so far this season, but 2011 looks to kick things off with back-to-back double-overhead swells. Thankfully, the first arrives tomorrow, so hurry up and shake that New Year’s hangover because the forecast looks eerily similar to mid-November’s swell.
The Waimea Bay forecast shows Sunday’s Northwest swell building throughout the day, with solid conditions early (7.5 feet at 17.9 seconds 311° as of 8 a.m.). Keep an eye on the Northwest Hawaii buoy tonight, as long-period forerunners could appear as early as 7 p.m. Those observations will be the best real-time indicators of swell size and arrival time.
Sunday’s swell peaks in the evening at 9.8 feet at 16.1 seconds (309°). Forecast conditions are nearly identical to those of the November 15th, 2010 swell, which was forecast to peak at 10.2 feet at 15.5 seconds (308°). Winds are favorable, with light-to-moderate East winds currently forecast.
The second Northwest swell arrives on Tuesday, building throughout the day before peaking overnight. The forecast calls for 9.2 feet at 16.3 seconds (306°) by 6:00 a.m. Wednesday morning. Winds are again favorable, with light Northeast tradewinds currently forecast.
On Thursday, the winds increase in strength and turn slightly more North, which may produce unfavorable side-onshore chop at some locations. A moderate, short-period North swell also arrives Thursday, then builds through the weekend.
Da Hui Backdoor Shootout begins its holding period on the 3rd, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re done by the 6th.