Kaua‘i’s Tanner McDaniel lands the first Tic Roll, a backflip to el rollo, at the ripe age of 12. Apparently the secret sauce these days is a trampoline, gymnastics class, and the rubber limbs of a teenager to be.

To help spread the stoke of our Buoy Alarm beta launch, we’re excited to announce our Slide This! photo challenge. To enter, simply post a photo of your favorite surf craft to the Buoy Alarm Facebook Page along with a brief description. It can be a shortboard, longboard, bodyboard, handplane, surf mat, SUP… even a McDonald’s tray. If you’re stoked sliding down a wave on it, we want to see it!

One lucky winner, randomly selected from all qualified submissions, will receive a 16″ x 20″ print of 21 Feet at 17 Seconds, along with a 12-month premium subscription coupled with personalized support from the Buoy Alarm team.

The Hood by Enjoy Handplanes

The contest ends on Sunday, May 27th so start sharing those funky quiver gems on Facebook. We’ve provided an example for you above.

Slide on!

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Slide This! Photo Challenge Details

Prize
One (1) randomly selected winner will receive a 16″ x 20″ print of 21 Feet at 17 Seconds and a 12-month premium membership to Buoy Alarm.

Duration
Photos may be submitted until Sunday, May 27th, 2012 at 11:59pm HST.

Who Can Enter
Open only to residents of the USA 18 years old and older.

How to Enter
Post a photograph of your favorite surf craft on the Buoy Alarm Facebook page along with a brief description of it.

How Winner Will Be Chosen
The winner will be chosen at Random.org and will be notified via Facebook. You will have 48 hours to respond, or a new winner will be chosen.

Multiple Submissions
Only one post will be considered. Additional submissions are acceptable, but will not improve your odds of winning.

Having recently moved to Los Angeles from Hawaii, I’m still getting a feel for the region and how swell energy impacts the coast. Compared to my experiences on the North Shore of O‘ahu, the waves in Southern California tend to come off a bit soft. But how soft? How do you measure the relative strength of the two regions?

To satisfy my curiosity I’ve built a monthly wave power almanac, which displays the maximum wave power per month, as well as the average. The background color indicates scale, with white being the least powerful and deep purple being the most powerful. The two stations I’ve chosen to look at are Dana Point in California and Waimea Bay in Hawaii. Let’s begin with the Dana Point buoy.

Dana Point, California - Primary Swell Power (April 2012 - May 2010)

The first month that stands out is September 2011, it’s the lone green block with a maximum of 48. Guess what swell that was (unsure?). While it wasn’t nearly as deadly by the time it crossed the Pacific, the “Code Red” monster from Tahiti is still the most powerful event on the buoy over the past 24 months. April 2012 is actually the second most powerful at 37, likely as a result of the large NW swell that pushed through at the beginning of the month.

Aside from those two, no other month surpasses 30, although there are a few high 20s. The least powerful month was October 2010, which recorded a measly maximum of 8. As we move on to the Waimea Bay buoy, things starts to get a bit more colorful.

Waimea Bay, Hawaii - Primary Swell Power (April 2012 - May 2010)

Let’s start off with July 2011. It had a maximum wave power of 2. Why do you think everyone jumps on their stand-ups and paddleboards on the North Shore during the summer? There’s literally nothing to surf.

It’s an entirely different ocean just six months earlier. January 2011 packs the most mana, with a recorded maximum wave power of 218. That’s over four times more powerful than anything recorded by the Dana Point buoy in the last 24 months. In fact, the average wave power during that month was 30! Definitely a stellar month, as well as a stellar 2010-2011 season for Hawaii.

You’ll also notice that with the Pipe Masters running in December, the ASP has kinda been missing out these last two years. January and February of both 2011 and 2012 have been about twice as powerful as December. Both the Backdoor Shootout and the Volcom Pipe Pro scored ridiculous surf this past year, with the latter actually stopping competition because Pipeline got too big.

Having access to data like this helps put things into perspective and identify those truly special “should’ve been there” moments. It also provides a frame of reference for future conditions, when similar calculations are applied to forecast models. Of course there are plenty of other factors that can influence the quality of the surf, but if the power is there, there’s potential.

April 23, 2012 Update – The latest model run shows the surface wind faltering a bit around the 30th, which means the second pulse expected to arrive in Southern California on May 7th will not be as large as previously forecast.

Although the surface winds are now expected to back off on 30th (above), there is still a good 36-42 hour span of strong northerly winds in the 140° to 120° longitudes between April 27-29th.

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The long-range South Pacific forecast shows two long-period swells lining up at the end of April. South America will be receiving the brunt of the energy, and may very well see XXL-size surf, but more northern exposures can expect to get in on the action as well. The two images above show swell period and swell height respectively on April 30th, 2012. Each of the swell trains are shaded and labeled.

The first swell (1) is currently forecast to reach Southern California on May 4th, while the second (2), larger pulse is expected to arrive around May 7th. Given that these charts reflect the very end of the 180-hour model run, things are obviously subject to change. However, May is looking very favorable at the moment, and we’ll be keeping a eye on the southern hemisphere to see how things develop over the next few days.

The forecast is looking very good for the next five days, with a combination of long-period swells expected from both the south and the west-northwest.

Currently, moderate SSW leftovers in the 2 feet at 13 second range are lingering throughout the region, but a new WNW swell is already making its way down the coast, with more northerly stations reporting a solid 12 feet at 14-15 seconds. Looking at the forecast for the Harvest station (above), you can see that the new WNW swell should peak at that location by early Thursday morning (12 feet at 13 seconds, 293°).

As that WNW pulse fades into the weekend, an even bigger swell arrives right on its heels, with swell conditions currently expected to reach a substantial 21 feet at 14 seconds (299°). If swell heights do top 20 feet at the station on Sunday, it will be the first time it’s done so in over a year. The bad news is that strong NNW winds (29 knots, 30+ mph) are also forecast and will likely provide victory at sea conditions for the most exposed breaks.

However, there is also a solid south swell forecast to peak on Saturday, with 17+ second long-period forerunners expected as early as Thursday. Conditions are looking really fun for Friday afternoon, with light winds and a building ground swell. Swell conditions peak at the Point Loma South station (above) on Saturday in the 4 feet at 17 second range (198°), but west to northwest winds increase throughout the weekend, so the best bet is to get it early.

Best Bet: Spots that like long-period southwest swell (4 feet at 17 seconds, 195-198°) on late Friday or early Saturday.

Wildcard: Spots that favor combo-swell conditions (long-period southwest and west-northwest) on Sunday, but find some shelter from the NNW winds or it’s a bust.

East Pacific Significant Wave Height Forecast - March 24, 2012

A large, moderate-period WNW swell is on its way towards the West Coast, with another system set up directly behind it.

Initial forecasts for the second swell show it peaking next weekend (March 31) with significantly larger swell heights. Keep an eye on the Point Reyes station model to see how this system develops over the next few days.

A South Pacific ground swell is also making its way north and is expected to arrive next weekend as well. Can you say combo swell?

The long-range models are looking promising, with a swell currently forecast to build in the South Pacific into this weekend. If the models hold up, and the swell develops as currently forecast, expect a fresh round of southern hemisphere surf arriving around March 31st.

We’ll be keeping an eye on this system during the next few days to see how things develop. Our fingers are crossed that it doesn’t turn into a cruel April Fools joke.

The latest Wavewatch forecast shows a sizable northwest swell building in the East Pacific. Keep an eye on this storm to see how things develop, as this is currently at the tail end of the model’s 180-hour range and is subject to revision. Given favorable conditions, initial estimates place the swell’s arrival in Hawaii on the 25th of March.

March 18th Update – Major Downgrade in the Forecast

Well, there’s a reason why the long-range models are subject to revision. 54 hours later and the large NW system that was previously forecast has vanished. The forecast now shows moderate NNW and NNE energy building on Wednesday into Thursday of this week, with swell conditions of 5-6 feet at 10-11 seconds expected.

“…after seeing his performances at Jaws and the Outer Reefs this season, his initiative in organizing a CPR class for big-wave surfers and just being an all-around good guy, Danilo Couto was chosen as the inaugural winner of the Milosky Mettle award.” - via Surfing Magazine