Three separate Northwest swells are currently forecast over the next seven days. The first swell arrives tomorrow, building rapidly throughout the day, with 5.6 feet at 15.4 second (323°) conditions forecast for 12 p.m. Wednesday.
Look for Wednesday’s swell to increase in size throughout the day, then peak overnight, before declining through Saturday. Thursday morning will be biggest, with solid double-overhead surf expected from the NNW (327°).
The swell direction will turn slightly more North, pivoting from 323° to 332° as it fades. A Northwest reinforcement arrives on Saturday, building throughout the day and peaking overnight (5.9 feet at 14.7 seconds 322°) before declining through Sunday.
The Waimea Bay forecast model shows a third Northwest pulse right on its heels, but it’s a bit long-range at the moment and we’ll wait another day or two to see how things develop.
Definitely no shortage of action and opportunity for the North Shore Lifeguard Association’s 2011 Ke Kaha Nalu Hanana O Ehukai, which has a number of days to choose from. The sand situation at Pipe is currently not optimal, but that could change overnight on Wednesday. Thursday and Sunday currently look like the two best options, with steady Northeast winds forecast throughout the week.
Thursday will be biggest (double-overhead, 329°), but what matters most for the bodysurfers is a West-Northwest swell direction, and while Sunday is smaller (overhead, 320°), the direction is slightly more West. Likely a game-day decision by the Lifeguard Association on Thursday morning. If the sand and direction work out, it will be hard to say no to six to eight foot spitting barrels.